Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV)
Estimativa do valor de mercado de um projeto caso todos os tokens previstos já estivessem em circulação, usando a oferta máxima e não apenas a atual.
Key points
- FDV, or fully diluted valuation, estimates how much a project would be worth if all of its planned tokens were already in circulation.
- It uses the token's maximum supply, not just the circulating portion, unlike traditional market capitalization.
- Comparing FDV with current market cap helps reveal how much supply is still to come and the future pressure that may represent.
What is FDV?
FDV stands for fully diluted valuation. It is a way of estimating a project's market value by considering not only the tokens already in circulation, but all the tokens that will exist once supply reaches its planned total. In other words, it projects how much the project would be worth today if every planned token were already on the market, at the current price.
How it works
The calculation is straightforward: the token's current price is multiplied by its projected maximum supply, rather than by the amount currently circulating. This is what sets it apart from traditional market capitalization, which only considers circulating tokens. When many tokens have not yet been released, FDV can be much higher than the current market cap, revealing the project's potential size if the full supply enters circulation.
Comparing the two numbers is what makes FDV useful. A large gap between FDV and market capitalization indicates that a significant portion of tokens has yet to be released, signaling future supply pressure. As those tokens enter circulation, whether through unlock schedules, rewards, or ongoing emission, this new supply can influence price, especially if demand does not keep pace.
FDV, however, should be read with caution. It assumes the current price applied to the entire supply, which is a simplification: in practice, releasing large amounts of tokens tends to affect the price itself. In addition, emission schedules can stretch over years or change, and the maximum supply is not always actually reached. For this reason, FDV is a contextual reference, not a prediction of value.
Understanding FDV helps in interpreting valuations of projects with many tokens still locked.
Why it matters
Understanding FDV helps you look beyond current market cap and see how much of a token's supply is still to come. It is a useful reference for assessing future pressure on a project, as part of analyzing its tokenomics. This is a valuation concept, and none of it constitutes any trading recommendation.
Risks and limitations
FDV assumes the current price applied to the entire supply, which is unrealistic, since releasing large amounts of tokens tends to affect the price. Emission schedules can change or stretch over years, and the maximum supply is not always reached. For this reason, FDV can overstate potential value and should be used as context, not as a prediction. None of this constitutes a trading recommendation.